基于 Lyapunov 指数的电力系统短期负荷预测

采用非线性系统理论对电力系统历史负荷数据序列进行了特征分析，计算出Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数，并利用该Ｌｙａ－ｐｕｎｏｖ指数模式进行短期负荷预测，进而提出短期负荷预测的时间尺度的概念。这种方法不利用气候和气温等数据，只利用电力系统一维峰值负荷历史数据计算出过去的变动模式进行负荷预测，就可以得到较高的预测精度。对东北电网实际负荷数据进行了预测，结果令人满意，从而为电力系统短期负荷预测提供了一种新的预测方法。

Electric Power System Short term Load Forecasting Using Lyapunov Exponents Technique

This paper intruduces non linear theory which analyzes the time series of electric power system load and calculates Lyapunov exponents,predicts short term loads using one dimention Lyapunov exponents mode,and presents a time scale concept of short term load forecasting.The results obtained from calculation through the Northeast Networks data show that the supposed method,only using data on which temperature and wethear have on effect,is available in precictation precise.It is a new effective method supplied for short term load forecasting of electric power system.