| 基于加权马尔可夫链的神木县年降雨量预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王晓明,文望,冯忠良. 基于加权马尔可夫链的神木县年降雨量预测分析[J]. 山西建筑, 2014, 0(29): 239-241 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王晓明 文望 冯忠良 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安科技大学地质与环境学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用马尔可夫链的方法,以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权,建立了适合于预测神木县年降雨量的加权马尔可夫链模型,结合模糊集理论中的级别特征值,预测了神木县2004年的年降雨量,并采用平稳分布估计了神木县年降雨量处于各状态的重现期,结果表明,神木县年降雨量处于正常年几率最大。
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| 关 键 词： | 年降雨量 加权马尔可夫链 模糊集理论 平稳分布 |
Prediction of rainfall based on the weighted Markov chain in Shenmu county |
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| WANG Xiao-ming;WEN Wang;FENG Zhong-liang. Prediction of rainfall based on the weighted Markov chain in Shenmu county[J]. Shanxi Architecture, 2014, 0(29): 239-241 |
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| Authors: | WANG Xiao-ming WEN Wang FENG Zhong-liang |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Xiao-ming;WEN Wang;FENG Zhong-liang;College of Geology and Environment,Xi’an University of Science and Technology; |
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| Abstract: | The weighted Markov chain method is applied to each order autocorrelation coefficient of the standardization of rights, established suitable model for predicting annual rainfall of Shenmu county and connecting with the level characteristic value in the theory of fuzzy sets, forecasting the 2004 annual rainfall. And the results show that the possibility of normal year and weak drought year is the larger according to the stationary distribution. |
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| Keywords: | annual rainfall weighted Markov chain fuzzy set stationary distribution |
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