| 利用面板数据的高速公路安全分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐婷,孙小端,贺玉龙,谢昌荣.利用面板数据的高速公路安全分析[J].昆明理工大学学报(理工版),2009,34(5):71-74. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐婷 孙小端 贺玉龙 谢昌荣 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京工业大学,交通工程重点实验室,北京,100124
2. 扬州市运输管理处,江苏,扬州,225002 |
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| 基金项目： | 交通部西部建设项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 随着汽车保有量的增加，交通事故已成为威胁人们生活的安全隐患．使用Paneldata模型进行不同路段交通事故的统计回归分析．分别介绍了个体固定效应模型和随机效应模型的建立过程以及相关检验，并应用于京津塘高速公路的事故分析．Hausman检验表明，个体固定效应回归模型更加合理、适合于高速公路事故分析．同时可识别路段间的差异，快速定位事故高发路段．
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| 关 键 词： | 交通安全 事故预测 Panel data模型 固定效应 随机效应 |
Highway Accident Analysis Based on Panel Data |
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| Affiliation: | XU Ting,SUN Xiao-duan,HE Yu-long,XIE Chang-rong (1. Key Lab of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124 ,China; 2. Yangzhou Transportation Management Bureau, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225002, China) |
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| Abstract: | With the increase of automobiles in China, traffic accidents have become a potential safety problem which threats people＇s life. Panel data model is applied in this paper to statistical regression analysis of traffic accidents. The modeling process of individual fixed - effects and random effects model as well as related tests are also introduced. These models are then applied to analysis of accidents on Jingjintang highway. It is shown through the Hausman test that the individual fixed - effects model is more reasonable and feasible to analyze highway accidents and to identify the accident section. |
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| Keywords: | Panel |
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