基于贝叶斯网络的目标毁伤效果评估研究

随着现代战争节奏的加快，战场环境的复杂化，目标毁伤效果评估(BDA)对战场指挥员的作战决策影响越来越大。而现代战场的复杂性及目标毁伤信息的不确定性，给目标BDA带来了巨大挑战。贝叶斯网络是最近几十年刚流行起来的一种不确定性推理工具，它可以根据不确定或不完整信息对所研究的问题做出相对准确的推理，贝叶斯网络的这种特点正好适合在战场上根据各种不确定或不完整的目标毁伤信息对目标毁伤效果进行综合评估。通过对基于贝叶斯网络的目标BDA方法的探讨，叙述了贝叶斯网络模型的建立与更新过程，并以机场跑道为研究对象，演示了利用贝叶斯网络进行目标BDA的过程，说明了贝叶斯网络在目标BDA中应用的可行性与有效性。

Battle Damage Assessment Based on Bayesian Network

With the quickening rhythm of the war and the complication of battlefield environment, the battle damage assessment (BDA) has had a more important effect on the commanderJ s decision. Be-cause of the complexity of modern battlefield and the uncertainty of battle damage information, it is more and more difficult to determine the damage level of target. Bayesian network is a reasoning and predicting tool coming into vogue only in recent decades. It can correctly reason a problem of interest based on the uncertainty and incomplete information, wmch is suited to evaluate the battle damage based on the uncertainty and incomplete target damage information. According to the study of BDA based on Bayesian network, the building and updating process of Bayesian network model were dis?cussed .The feasibility and validity of Bayesian network for BDA were analyzed by taking airport run?way for example.