| 基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法的电力系统暂态稳定概率评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶圣永,王晓茹,周曙,刘志刚,钱清泉.基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法的电力系统暂态稳定概率评估[J].电工技术学报,2012(6):168-174. |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶圣永 王晓茹 周曙 刘志刚 钱清泉 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学电气工程学院;四川省电力公司电网规划中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(90610026);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(SWJTU09ZT10);四川省电力公司科技项目(川电发展[2012]75号文);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NECT-08-0825)资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究了一种电力系统暂态稳定概率评估方法,提出了利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法模拟负荷水平,考虑随机序列之间的相关性;模拟过程中,提出以故障信息作为输入特征、基于AdaBoost-DT的暂态稳定评估方法。新英格兰39节点测试系统的仿真表明,本文提出的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法比传统的蒙特卡罗方法更快速收敛,同时AdaBoost-DT大幅减少仿真时间,且能有效预测暂态稳定性。
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| 关 键 词： | 暂态稳定评估 马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗 决策树 提升 |
Power System Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method |
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| Ye Shengyong,Wang Xiaoru,Zhou Shu,Liu Zhigang,Qian Qingquan.Power System Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2012(6):168-174. |
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| Authors: | Ye Shengyong Wang Xiaoru Zhou Shu Liu Zhigang Qian Qingquan |
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| Affiliation: | 1(1.Southwest Jiaotong University Chengdu 610031 China 2.Sichuan Electric Power Corporation Chengdu 610041 China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,a power system probabilistic transient stability assessment was studied,and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to emulation load level was put forward.Taking the relativity of random samples into account,this method was more suitable for actual power system.During simulation,transient stability assessment method is proposed based on AdaBoost-DT and took fault information as input features.The simulation of New England 39 bus test system shows Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method converges faster than traditional Monte Carlo method.At the same time,AdaBoost-DT can dramatically reduce emulation time and effectively forecast transient stability. |
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| Keywords: | Transient stability assessment Markov Chain Monte Carlo method decision tree AdaBoost |
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