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| 特尔菲与蒙特卡罗联合方法在油气资源预测评价中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 王艳妮,刘刚,潘源敦,王献勇. 特尔菲与蒙特卡罗联合方法在油气资源预测评价中的应用[J]. 天然气勘探与开发, 2011, 34(3): 24-26,30 |
| 作者姓名： | 王艳妮 刘刚 潘源敦 王献勇 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 江苏省有色金属地质勘查局地质信息中心 2. 中国地质大学(武汉)计算机学院;教育部“构造与油气资源”重点实验室 3. 中国石化荆州勘查技术研究中心 4. 中国地质大学(武汉)计算机学院 |
| 摘 要： | 由于油气资源成藏条件复杂、影响因素众多,其预测评价存在很大的不确定性。传统的方法估算储量只能提供一个确定的储量数值,不能定量说明该数值的可靠程度。为了更加精确和合理地估算油气资源的储量,将特尔菲法和蒙特卡罗法结合起来对油气资源的储量进行预测评价,特尔菲法综合各影响因子,蒙特卡罗法实际运算三角分布数据、观测数据或者经验估值,计算的结果是一条储量逆累积概率曲线。在使用储量数值时,选用一定概率条件下的一个储量范围值,这样更能反映人们对地下资源的认识程度,因而对勘探开发工作更富有指导意义。 |
| 关 键 词： | 油气资源评价 特尔菲法 蒙特卡罗法 逆累积概率 |
APPLICATION OF BOTH DELPHI AND MONTE CARLO METHODS TO EVALUATION OF HYDROCARBON RESOURCES |
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| WANG Yanni,LIU Gang,,PAN Yu,un , WANG Xianyong,.Key Laboratory of Tectonics , Petroleum Resources,Ministry of Education,.Sinopec Jing Zhou Exploration Technology Research Center).. APPLICATION OF BOTH DELPHI AND MONTE CARLO METHODS TO EVALUATION OF HYDROCARBON RESOURCES[J]. Natural Gas Exploration and Development, 2011, 34(3): 24-26,30 | |
| Authors: | WANG Yanni LIU Gang PAN Yu un WANG Xianyong .Key Laboratory of Tectonics Petroleum Resources Ministry of Education .Sinopec Jing Zhou Exploration Technology Research Center). |
| Affiliation: | WANG Yanni1,LIU Gang2,3,PAN Yuandun4 and WANG Xianyong2(1.Information Center,Nonferrous Metals Geological Exploration Bureau of Jiangsu Province,2.College of Resources,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),3.Key Laboratory of Tectonics and Petroleum Resources,Ministry of Education,4.Sinopec Jing Zhou Exploration Technology Research Center). |
| Abstract: | Since reservoir-forming conditions are not only complicated but also influenced by many factors,to evaluate hydrocarbon resources is very uncertain.Some traditional methods to assess reserves can only provide a certain value,which can not quantitatively demonstrate a reliability of the value.In this paper,in order to more accurately and reasonably assess reserves,both Delphi and Monte Carlo methods are used.During assessment,all influencing factors are integrated by Delphi method whereas the operations of t... |
| Keywords: | evaluation of hydrocarbon resources evaluation Delphi method Monte Carlo method inverse cumulative-probability |
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