集对分析在尾矿库安全评价中的运用

尾矿库是一个具有高势能的人造泥石流危险源,存在溃坝危险,一旦失事,容易造成重特大事故。为确保尾矿库安全运行,防止灾害事故发生,对尾矿库进行安全评价是非常必要的。针对事故树顶上事件的发生概率对系统安全评价的重要性,首先介绍了集对分析的基本理论,以及集对分析理论与事故树分析的结合求解顶上事件发生概率的模型;接着以尾矿库安全评价为例,并进行了分析计算;最后总结了运用集对分析方法对顶上事件发生概率进行判定的优越性。

The Application of Set Pair Analysis in Safety Assessment of Tailing Pond

Abstract: Tailing pond that has a high potential energy of man-made debris flow hazards exited dam danger. Once crashed, it is liable to cause great accidents. In order to insure Tailing Pond operation safely and prevent from disaster accident, it is necessary to take safety assessment for tailing pond. According to the importance of the fault tree top event's occurrence probability to systematic safety assessment, firstly introduced the basic theory of the set pair analysis, and a combination of set pair analysis theory and the accident tree analysis to solve the occurrence probability of top events model. Then taking the tailing pond safety evaluation for example, analyzed and calculated results. Finally summarize the superiority of using set pair analysis method to judge the occurrence probability of top events.