电网规划评估方法及实用化技术

目前我国电网规划中主要采用N-1准则对系统安全性进行评估,但该方法未计及电力系统运行和元件故障的随机性。概率风险分析考虑了电网行为的随机特性，基于此进行的电网规划评估不仅是对N-1准则的有益补充，而且为规划设计人员提供了量化的风险信息。将概率风险分析方法应用在输电网规划工作中，结合工程案例，进行静态和暂态风险评估，比较规划方案风险水平，依据提出的根源故障风险指标和薄弱环节风险指标，寻找电网薄弱环节，提高规划方案的合理性。

Evaluation Method and Practical Technology on Power Grid Planning

Deterministic N-1 principle is widely used in power grid planning to evaluate the security level of the system at present. However, the probabilistic or stochastic nature of system behavior and component failures is not included in this approach. The evaluation for power grid planning, based on probabilistic risk analysis method with considering the random characteristic of power grid, was not only a useful supplement to the N-1 principle, but also could provide quantitative risk information for planning and design personnel. This paper applied probabilistic risk analysis method in the planning work of transmission network, carried on the static and transient risk evaluation combined with engineering cases, and compared the risk level of planning scheme. Based on the proposed risk indicators of root cause failure and weak link, the weakness of power grid was found to improve the rationality of the planning scheme.