概率性地震危险性分析中两种模型研究

概率性地震危险性分析是地震危险性分析中普遍采用的分析方法，这种方法以地面运动参数的年超越概率与平均复发周期关系的形式给出。它综合了所有地震潜源和它们的平均地震活动率对场点的影响。在输入对场点的影响时往往需要建立一定的数学模型。而不同的数学模型又有不同的适用范围。本文通过对概率性地震危险性分析方法中两种数学模型的对比研究，为在地震发生的时空不均匀性和不同地震资料精度的地震危险性分析时确定模型适用范围提出参考意见。

Study of Two Models on Probability Analysis of Earthquake Hazards

Using probability to analyze seismic risk was the most widely used method in earthquake occurrence. This method was given in the form of relations based on annually transcendented prolability with averaged recurrence period. The form synthesed all earthquake potentialities of the source together with their averaged active rate and effects on seismic spots. Inputing effects on spots needs setting up mathematic models. However,different mathematical models are adaptable to different ranges. Contrast studies were made of two kinds of models set up with probability analyzing seismic risks. Some referrences were proposed in view of inconsistence in time and space as earthquake occurred, with seismic risk and adaptable range of model analyzed.