基于随机潮流的高比例新能源接入配电网的极限线损分析

高比例新能源的接入使得配电网潮流具有波动性和不确定性，系统不确定性潮流将影响配电网极限线损准确计算。针对含高比例新能源的配电网，分析新能源出力及负荷的概率模型。结合对称采样无迹变换算法，建立计及新能源出力和负荷随机性的配电网极限线损模型。对基于随机变量相关性采样获得的样本点线损计算，经加权处理后得到配电网线损的概率特征。最后，以IEEE 69节点系统和某县配电网为例，选用蒙特卡洛模拟方法做对比，验证了该模型的可行性。

Analysis on Limit Line Loss in High Proportion of Renewable Energy Distribution Network Based on Stochastic Power Flow

The high proportion of renewable energy makes the power flow of distribution network fluctuate and uncertain， thus affecting the accurate calculation of limit line loss in the distribution network. For the distribution network with a high proportion of renewable energy， the probability model of renewable energy output and load is analyzed. Combined with the symmetric sampling traceless transformation algorithm， the limit line loss model of the distribution network is established by considering the randomness of the renewable energy output and load. After the weighted processing of line loss calculation of sample points obtained based on the correlation sampling of random variables， the probability characteristics of the distribution network line loss are obtained. Finally， taking IEEE 69-bus system and a county distribution network as an example， the feasibility of the model is verified with the Monte Carlo simulation method.