光储电站发电平价上网问题研究

目前新能源补贴发放不及时等问题突出,光储电站只有实现平价发电,才能摆脱国家补贴,取得与传统能源一致的成本优势。本文通过分析光储电站的收益和成本函数,构建基于全寿命周期理论的光储电站成本电价模型;结合常规能源上网电价,提出光储电站平价上网可行性指标;通过敏感性分析,计算光储电站平价发电的临界投资成本。最后利用学习曲线等方法,对光伏组件及电池的价格进行预测,得到光储电站实现平价上网的关键时间节点。算例结果表明,当前光储电站成本电价较高,但随着建设成本的下降,预计将于2021年实现平价上网。本文研究有助于光储电站的投资决策以及国家阶梯性电价政策的调整。

Research on Gird Parity of Photovoltaic Power Station with Energy Storage System

At present,some problems related to renewable energy are becoming more and more serious,e.g.,the corresponding subsidies are not timely issued.Accordingly,only when the photovoltaic power station with energy storage system(PV-ES)achieves grid parity,can it no longer rely on national subsidies and achieve the same cost advantage as that of the traditional energy.In this paper,through analyzing the benefit and cost functions of a PV-ES,its cost price model is established based on the whole life cycle theory;its conditions of grid parity are put forward based on the upgrid electricity price of the traditional energy;sensitivity analysis is used to calculate the critical investment cost if the PV-ES realizes grid parity.Finally,learning curve is used to predict the prices of PV module and energy storage battery to determine the time point at which the PV-ES can realize grid parity.The results of a numerical example show that the PV-ES’cost price is relatively higher at present;however,with the decline in construction cost,grid parity is expected to be realized in the year of 2021.The research in this paper is helpful to the investment decisions of PV-ES and the adjustment of national policies for multistep electricity price.