| 系统动力学在市话发展预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴瑞云,粱雄健. 系统动力学在市话发展预测中的应用[J]. 北京邮电大学学报, 1991, 0(3) |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴瑞云 粱雄健 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京邮电学院管理工程系，北京邮电学院管理工程系 |
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| 摘 要： | 市内电话发展受许多相关因素的影响,因此预测相对复杂些,特别是长期预测,由于缺少必要的资料和手段,往往造成对预测准确性的怀疑.本文较详细地分析了市内电话发展的特点,提出了应用系统动力学预测市内电话长期发展的新的预测方法,并通过对广州市内电话发展的预测分析检验了模型的可行性.
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| 关 键 词： | 系统动力学 市内电话 预测 模型 |
The Application of Systems Dynamics in Urban Telephone Development Forecast |
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| Wu Ruiyun Liang Xiongjian. The Application of Systems Dynamics in Urban Telephone Development Forecast[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, 1991, 0(3) |
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| Authors: | Wu Ruiyun Liang Xiongjian |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Management Engineering |
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| Abstract: | The development of urban telephone is affected by many related fac- tors,then,the forecast is camparative complex.Especially,for long-term forecast,because of the lack of data and means,people often doubt the accuracy of forecast.This article make a penetrating analysis of urban telephone deve- lopment,put forward a new method by applying system's dynamics to do the forecast of urban telephone long term development and use Guangzhou city as an example,testing and verifying the effeetiveness of this model. |
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| Keywords: | System's Dynamics Urban Telephone Forecast Model |
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