南水北调中线水源区生态产业与环境耦合发展情景分析

运用系统动力学方法构建水源区生态产业与环境的耦合模型，结合南水北调中线水源区丹江口库区渠首河南淅川的基础数据，分析了南水北调中线水源区生态产业与环境耦合机制，在此基础上设计了4种情景方案进行仿真模拟。结果表明：投资增强型方案中，经济与产业发展有明显的改善趋势，GDP增长了9%,产业聚集度的平均增长幅度为10%;节约资源型方案2054年的资源使用总量为203.97万m³,比初始方案减少46.3%,废弃物直排量同比减少48.5%;经济发展型方案前期效果较好，GDP提高了30%,但后期存在发展停滞的问题；综合协调型方案总体上效果最好，其GDP和资源循环利用率分别提高了21.2%和16.7%,体现了产业与环境可持续发展的优势。未来，南水北调中线水源区应向调整产业结构、加强产业科技环保投资、增强节约和环保意识等方向综合发展，并辅以科学管理方法，以实现生态产业与环境的耦合协调。

Analysis on ecological industry and environment coupling development in water source area of middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

An ecological industry and environment coupling model for water source areas was constructed by use of the system dynamics method. Original data of Xichuan County, the head of Danjiangkou Reservoir area of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project were adopted, and subsequently, the ecological industry and environment coupling mechanism in water source areas was analyzed. Four scenarios were designed for simulation of the situation of ecological industry and environment coupling development. The results show that the economic and industrial development has an obvious improvement trend in the investment enhancement scheme, with GDP increasing by 9%, and the average growth rate of industrial agglomeration being 10%; for the resource-saving scheme, the total resource consumption will be 2.039 7 million m³ by 2054,46.3% less than the initial scheme, and the direct emission of waste will decrease by 48.5%; the economic development scheme has better effect in the early stage, and GDP increases by 30%, but the problem of development stagnation occurs in the later stage; in general, the comprehensive coordination scheme has the best effect, with GDP and the resource recycling utilization rate increasing by 21.2% and 16.7%, respectively, reflecting the advantages of sustainable development of industry and environment. In the future, in order to realize ecological industry and environment coupling development, it is necessary to adjust the industrial structure, increase the investment in industry and environmental protection, enhance the awareness of conservation and environmental protection, and adopt scientific management methods.