乌江梯级水电站联合优化调度效果分析——以应对20081106洪水为例

综合分析了应对20081106洪水的乌江梯级水电站联合调度效果及经验,并应用多元线性回归方法构建了乌江梯级水电站总发电量拟合模型,识别影响乌江梯级水电站发电量的关键因素及影响程度。结果表明,洪家渡和东风流域累计平均降雨在2008年10月和11月期间,分别比多年平均同期偏多40%～54%和71%～112%,经乌江梯级水电站联合优化调度后,梯级综合月末可用水量分别比2005～2007年同期偏高136%和162%,梯级综合发电量比2005～2007年同期分别偏多9%和141%,梯级水电站联合优化调度效果显著,且出库流量及龙头电站洪家渡的水位和月末可用水量是影响乌江梯级总发电量的决定性因素。研究结果对于从梯级水电站联合调度角度减缓极端天气事件对水电行业的影响具有重要的参考价值。

Analysis on Joint Optimal Operation Effect of Wujiang River Cascade Hydroelectric Stations -- Taking the Flood 20081106 as Example

This paper analyzes the joint operation effect and experience of Wujiang River cascade hydroelectric stations for handling the flood on November 6th, 2008 and forms the gross generation fitted model of Wujiang River cascade hydroelectric stations by using the multiple linear regression method, to identify the critical factors influencing the generated energy of Wujiang River cascade hydroelectric stations and its influence degree. The result shows that the aczaanulated average rainfall in Hongjiadu and Dongfeng hydrographic basin was focused in October and November in 2008, which ware increased 40-54% and 71-112% respectively compared to the average rainfall of many years in the corresponding period. Atter joint oplirnal operation of Wujiang River cascade hydroelectric stations, the cascade comprehensive available water at the end of a month raised by 136% and 162% respectively compared to the corresponding period in 2005-2007 and the cascade comprehensive generated energy raised by 9% and 141% respectively compared to the corresponding period in 2005-2007. The joint optimal operation effect of Wujiang River cascade hydroelectric stations is remarkable and the out flow, water level and available water at the end of a month in the leading hydroelectric station in Hongiiadu are the determining factors that influencing the gross generation of Wujiang River cascade hydroelectric stations. The research results have important reference value to slowing the effect of extreme weather events on the hydropower industry from the view ofjoint operation of cascade hydroelectric stations.