基于灰色关联度分析理论的底板破坏深度预测

在对影响底板破坏因素力学分析的基础上，利用灰色关联度分析理论对各主要影响因素进行求解，得出各因素与底板破坏深度关联度排序，各因素对底板破坏的影响程度排序为：工作面斜长＞倾角>底板抗破坏能力＞埋深＞采厚。基于各因素与底板破坏的关系选定线性与非线性2种基函数类型，利用Matlab软件进行拟合得出新型底板破坏深度公式；分析构造因素、工作面推进速度、特殊顶板管理方式对底板破坏的影响，考虑到预测结果的离散性以及特殊顶板管理方式对底板破坏的影响机制较为明确，选取特殊顶板管理方式因素对底板破坏深度公式进行修正，得出修正公式。研究成果补充与完善了现行的经验公式体系，工程实例验算表明公式预测精度较高。

Prediction of floor failure depth based on grey correlation analysis theory

On the basis of mechanical analysis on factors influencing floor damage,this paper analyzed the main floor failure factors by using grey correlation analysis theory,and concluded that the correlation order of these factors was related to the floor failure depth.The influence degree of various factors on the floor damage was as follows:facing length,coal seam dip angle,floor ability to resist damage,buried depth and the mining thick.Based on the relationship between these factors and the floor damage,this paper applied both linear and nonlinear types of basis function,obtained a new formula of floor failure depth by regression analysis fitting using mathematical software Matlab.Through analyzing the floor damage which was influenced by structural factors,the advance rate of working face and special roof management,taking the discrete nature of the results and the clear floor failure mechanism influenced by the special roof management into account,this paper improved the formula specially based on the influence of the special roof management on the floor failure depth.This study improved the existing system of empirical formula,and the given field example verified that the formula had good accuracy.