黄河花园口断面近60年来水量变化分析

根据《黄河水资源综合规划》中1956-2000年和《黄河水资源公报》中2001-2015年黄河花园口断面以上区域降水量,断面实测径流量、天然径流量和水资源总量组成的1956-2015年60年系列花园口断面来水数据,分析60年系列来水过程并对比1956-1979年、1956-2000年、1956-2015年、1980-2000年、1980-2015年和2001-2015年系列平均断面以上区域降水量、断面实测径流量、天然径流量、水资源总量数据成果。1956-2015年60年间,花园口以上区域年降水量年际变化不大,其中1980-2000年系列平均降水量相对偏小;花园口断面实测径流量、天然径流量和水资源总量年际变化大且总体渐次减少,临近近期且均值系列最短的2001-2015年,平均实测径流量、天然径流量和水资源总量均为各系列平均最小值。1990年左右以来,经济社会用水量增加、包括退耕、禁牧和矿山开采等带来的下垫面条件改变,已成为花园口断面来水量渐次减少的主要影响因素。

Analysis on the Yellow River inflow variation on Huayuankou section in recent 60 years

According to the inflow data of Huayuankou Section in recent 60 years from 1956 to 2015, such as the precipitation, measured runoff, natural runoff, total water resources volume recorded in the Master Planning of Yellow River Water Resources (1956-2000)and the Yellow River Water Resources Bulletin (2001-2015), the author analyzed the serial inflow process of 60 years and compared the average precipitation, measured runoff, natural runoff, total water resources volume above the Section in deferent year series of 1956-1979, 1956-2000, 1956-2015, 1980-2000, 1980-2015, 2001-2015. During the 60 years from 1956 to 2015, the annual precipitation above the Huayuankou Section did not change too much, among which the average precipitation in 1980 - 2000 was relatively small. While the measured runoff, natural runoff, total water resources volume in Huayuankou varied a lot in different years and reduced gradually in the long term. In recent years from 2001 to 2015, the measured runoff, natural runoff, total water resources volumes were the minimum in all the series. Since 1990, the underlying surface condition has changed greatly due to the increase of economic and social water demand, returning farmland to forest, grazing prohibition, and mining, which has become the main reason for the gradual inflow reduction in Huayuankou Section of the Yellow River.