Intradaily dynamic portfolio selection |
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Authors: | Luc Bauwens Erick Rengifo |
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Affiliation: | a CORE and Department of Economics, Université catholique de Louvain, 1348 Louvain La Neuve, Belgium b Department of Finance, ESG, University of Quebec in Montreal, Canada c Department of Economics, Fordham University, New York, United States |
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Abstract: | A portfolio selection model which allocates a portfolio of currencies by maximizing the expected return subject to Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint is designed and implemented. Based on an econometric implementation using intradaily data, the optimal portfolio allocation is forecasted at regular time intervals. For the estimation of the conditional variance from which the VaR is computed, univariate and multivariate GARCH models are used. Model evaluation is done using two economic criteria and two statistical tests. The result for each model is given by the best forecasted intradaily investment recommendations in terms of the optimal weights of the currencies in the risky portfolio. The results show that estimating the VaR from multivariate GARCH models improves the results of the forecasted optimal portfolio allocation, compared to using a univariate model. |
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