中国风电发展目标分析与展望

我国风能资源合理开发利用和风电产业健康发展需要科学合理可行的发展目标做引导。本文提出了制定风电发展目标的基本原则与出发点,对现有的国家风电发展目标做了分析,认为国家规划的风电目标过低,已建和在建风电项目装机容量比到2010年的国家规划目标翻了一番,各省风电规划目标高低不一,总体偏高,且有目标攀比现象。进而采用累加值法、本地增长率法、类比增长率法、GM(1,1)模型法等多方法预测得到我国风电发展的科学目标,即到2010年我国风电装机容量达到1633万kW,到2015年达到4172万kW,到2020年达到10021万kW,占全国同期电力总装机容量的8.35%。预测趋势表明,我国风电正在进入加速发展阶段,到2020年我国风电装机容量将占到全球风电总装机容量的8.15%,风电发展将实现由风能资源大国向风电市场和产业强国的转变。

Analysis of Wind Power Industry Development Objectives and Prospects in China

The reasonable development and utilization of wind energy resource, and the healthy develop- ment of wind power industry need to be guided by a scientific, reasonable and feasible developing objectives. The paper proposes the basic principle for setting the developing objectives of wind power in our country, analyzes the present development target of wind power, and condudes that the planned national wind power development goal is too low, the actual installed capacity is the double of the planned goal in 2010, planned objectives vary from province to province, featuring by high overall goal with a phenomenon of conspicuous. The paper uses different methods including accumulation value method, the local growth rate method, the analogy growth rate method and gray forecast method to forecast the scientific development goal of our na- tional wind power industry. According to the prediction, the installed capacity of our national wind power will achieve 16.33 million kilowatts in 2010, 41.72 million kilowatts in 2015 and amount to 100.21 million kilowatts in 2020, which is 8.35% of national total power installed capacity. The forecast tendency indicates that China national wind power is entering the stage of accelerating development phase, by 2020, the wind power installed capacity will account for 8.15% of the global wind power installed capacity. It can realize the change from the most abundant wind energy resources country to the most powerful wind power industry country.