高升油田稠油产量预测方法探讨

稠油开采动态系统状态变化的主要开发指标“产油量”，具有时变性和随机性。根据高升油田稠油热采矿场资料，运用数理统计、油藏工程及系统工程，确定了适合高升油田稠油吞吐递减阶段产油量预测的基本模式──时间功能模型、统计规律模型，是油田中长期产油量预测和可采储量标定的较好方法。

An approach to prediction method of heavy oil production in Gaosheng oil field

Oil production, a major development index of heavy oil production performance, is changeable and random. According to field data of heavy oil thermal recovery inGaosheng oil field, using mathematical statistics, reservoir engineering and statistical engineering, basic modes of oil production prediction-time function model and statistical regularity model are determined for decline stage of heavy oil steam soak period in Gaosheng oilfield. This is a good method of oil production prediction for mid-long period and calibration ofrecoverable reserves.