Hydrogen for buses in London: A scenario analysis of changes over time in refuelling infrastructure costs

The lack of a hydrogen refuelling infrastructure is one of the major obstacles to the introduction of the hydrogen vehicles to the road transport market. To help overcome this hurdle a likely transitional solution is to introduce hydrogen for niche applications such as buses or other types of fleet vehicles for which fuel demand is predictable and localised. This paper analyses the costs of different hydrogen production-delivery pathways, via a case study of buses in London. Scenario analysis over time (2007–2025) is used to investigate potential changes to the cost of hydrogen as a result of technology development, growing demand for hydrogen and changes in energy prices (gas and electricity). It is found that factors related to hydrogen demand have the greatest effect on the unit cost of hydrogen, while for the whole of the analysis period, on-site SMR (steam methane reforming) remains the least-cost production-delivery pathway.