盐穴储气库腔体收缩风险影响因素的敏感性分析

 如何有效减少盐穴储气库在运营过程中的有效体积损失以延长储气库的使用寿命是运营和管理部门非常关心的问题。从宏观角度分析腔体的地层、设计和运行各参数对我国盐穴储气库腔体收缩风险的影响，归纳出7个可能影响因素并分别对其影响趋势进行预测，然后采用单因素敏感性分析方法，通过数值模拟计算结果的对比分析得到这7个可能影响因素对腔体体积收缩率的敏感度系数，并基于运行工况因素的敏感性系数值，提出盐穴储气库在运营过程中运行工况发生变化时腔体年体积收缩率的预测方法。结果表明除了盐岩本身的蠕变特性参数，从宏观角度分析，相邻腔体运行模式、单周期内低压运行时间比例和腔体高径比是盐穴储气库腔体收缩风险的敏感因素。因此，在腔体的建设和运营过程中，采用邻近腔体同采同注的运行模式，尽量减少低压运行时间，同时合理控制腔体的成腔形状，可以有效控制腔体的体积收缩变形。

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCE FACTORS OF CAVERN SHRINKAGE RISK IN SALT CAVERN GAS STORAGES

How to decrease the effective volume loss of salt cavern gas storages during their operation period to increase their service life is the concerned problem of operation and management departments. The influence of formation parameters，design parameters and operation parameters on cavern shrinkage risk of salt cavern gas storages was analyzed from the macroscopic angle. The inductive seven factors were analyzed and forecasted aiming at their effects on volume shrinkage of salt cavern gas storages. Then，the single-parameter sensitivity analysis method was used to calculate the seven factors? sensitivity coefficients to volume shrinkage ratio. Finally，a new method of forecasting the cavern?s volume shrinkage ratio was put forward based on the factors? sensitivity coefficient when the operation parameters were changed. The following conclusions are drawn. Besides the creep parameters of salt rock，the running mode of neighboring caverns，low pressure runtime in a cycle period and ratio of height to diameter of cavern are the sensitive factors for cavern shrinkage risk. Therefore，the cavern shrinkage can be decreased effectively by injecting and producing simultaneously with neighboring caverns，reducing low pressure runtime and controlling the cavern shape during construction and operation periods.