| 改进灰色GM(1,1)模型在煤炭消费预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯乐,窦鲁星,陈英东.改进灰色GM(1,1)模型在煤炭消费预测中的应用[J].山西焦煤科技,2012,36(7):34-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯乐 窦鲁星 陈英东 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院,江苏徐州,221116 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据灰色系统理论构建并优化了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,应用模型对我国煤炭消费总量进行拟合和预测。该模型通过减少数据受到的冲击扰动,以适应中长期预测。经检验,该模型具有较好的精度,预测结果反映出的煤炭消费发展趋势,可为今后制定煤炭发展战略提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 煤炭消费量 GM(1 1) 优化 预测 |
Application of an Improved GM ( 1,1 ) Model in Coal Consumption Forecast |
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| Feng Le
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Dou Lu-xing
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Chen Ying-dong.Application of an Improved GM ( 1,1 ) Model in Coal Consumption Forecast[J].Shanxi Coking Coal Science & Technology,2012,36(7):34-37. |
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| Authors: | Feng Le Dou Lu-xing Chen Ying-dong |
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| Affiliation: | Feng Le,Dou Lu-xing1,Chen Ying-dong |
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| Abstract: | By using the gray system theory,this paper fits and forecasts China ’s coal consumption with a GM(1,1) model built with a new application method.Through avoiding the shock and disturbance,the model can be used for both short-time prediction and long-time prediction.From the test results indicated that the prediction is reliable,the coal consumption trend of China can be reflected and the prediction results can be used for future coal development strategy formulation. |
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| Keywords: | Coal Consumption GM(1 1) Optimization Prediction |
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