我国股市价格波动和稳定性分析

股票市场是涉及政府、上市公司、券商、证券交易所、证券中介机构和投资者等不同利益主体之间进行多方博弈的复杂系统, 以往的基本面分析抑或是技术面分析, 具有针对性的一面而缺少了对股票市场整体系统的研究。对股价波动分析的现状和意义进行了初步的说明, 并在现有的股价波动模型作出简单的介绍和分析的基础上, 采用了理论分析、市场交易数据的实证研究等技术手段对中国股票市场价格波动作了较为深入的研究, 通过运用经济控制论的方法建立股票市场系统模型, 以上海股市和深圳股市的综合指数为样本, 对中国股票市场系统本身的波动特征和稳定性进行量化分析。结果表明, 排除政策等干扰因素, 中国股票市场系统本身是稳定的。

Analysis of the Price Fluctuation and Stability in Chinese Stock Market

Stock market is a complicated system on which the different interest members such as the government, public company, the stockbroker, stock exchange, the intermediary agency and the investors play a game of 'go' chess. The traditional basic or technical analysis that focus on a certain kind of specific aspect, lacks of micro study for stock market. The status and significance of the stock price fluctuation analysis was explained initially. On the basis of the existing models of stock price fluctuation, technical methods of theory analysis and positive analysis of the market exchange data were adopted to study deeply the price fluctuation of Chinese stock market. A system model of stock market was established by the use of economic control theory. Taking aggregative index number of Shanghai and Shenzhen's stock exchange as samples, a quantitative analysis of the fluctuation was made. It has drawn a conclusion that, to the exclusion of interferential factors of policy, Chinese stock market itself is a stable system.