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| 基于改进灰色马尔柯夫模型对我国煤炭生产总量的预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 刘寿兰,周新良,罗文柯,蒲宏桂.基于改进灰色马尔柯夫模型对我国煤炭生产总量的预测[J].矿业工程研究,2011,26(1):76-80. |
| 作者姓名： | 刘寿兰 周新良 罗文柯 蒲宏桂 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 湖南中元矿业有限公司,湖南,攸县,412300 2. 湖南科技大学能源与安全工程学院,湖南,湘潭,411201;湖南科技大学煤矿安全开采技术湖南省重点实验室,湖南,湘潭,411201 3. 邵阳市肖家冲煤矿,湖南,邵阳,422002 |
| 基金项目： | 国家安全生产监督管理总局安全生产科技发展计划资助项目(08-203;HN08-19;HNMJ10-05); 湖南省教育科学“十一五”规划课题资助项目(XJY08BGD027) |
| 摘 要： | 准确预测未来煤炭产量是合理确定产能目标和发展规划的重要依据.将灰色系统理论与离散状态的马尔柯夫链理论相结合,通过对1998～2008年度我国历年来煤炭产量的原始数据取其自然对数进行光滑处理,建立改进的GM(1,1)模型和灰色马尔柯夫模型,实证计算表明:改进的马尔柯夫模型预测精度明显高于改进的GM(1,1)模型,预测结果可靠,具有一定的普遍应用性. |
| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 马尔柯夫链 煤炭生产总量 GM(1 1)模型 预测 |
Application of improved grey Markov model in China' s total coal production prediction |
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| LIU Shoulan,ZHOU Xinliang,LUO Wenke,PU Honggui.Application of improved grey Markov model in China'' s total coal production prediction[J].Mineral Engineeering Reseach,2011,26(1):76-80. | |
| Authors: | LIU Shoulan ZHOU Xinliang LUO Wenke PU Honggui |
| Affiliation: | LIU Shoulan1,ZHOU Xinliang1,LUO Wenke2,3,PU Honggui4 (1.Hunan Zhongyuan Mining Co. Ltd.,Youxian 412300,China,2. School of Energy and Safety Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,3. Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Safe Mining Techniques of Coal Mines,4. Xiaojiachong Coal Mining in Shaoshang City,Shaoyang 422002,China ) |
| Abstract: | To predict accurately the coal production in the future is an important basis of reasonable determining the production target and development planning. Combining the grey system theory with the discrete-state Markov chain theory, the improved GM(1,1) model and grey Markov model were built based on smooth dealing with the initial data of the 1998~2008 annual coal production in China over the years by natural logarithm. The empirical calculations showed that the prediction accuracy of improved Markov model wa... |
| Keywords: | grey system Markov chain total coal production GM(1 1) model prediction |
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