基于信息熵对新安江水文模型参数及预报结果不确定性的量化分析

将GLUE方法与信息熵结合，分析新安江水文模型参数及预报结果的不确定性。首先用信息熵公式初步判断参数的敏感程度，根据GLUE方法求出90％置信度下流量的不确定范围；其次应用信息熵和U不确定公式共同量化分析模型预报结果的不确定性。以资水水系的新宁站集水区为研究区域，得出结论：①GLUE方法能够用来分析新安江水文模型参数的不确定性；②信息熵公式能够初步判断模型参数的敏感程度；③模型预报结果的不确定性随着实测资料的增加而降低。

Quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of the XAJ hydrological model parameters and forecast results based on the information entropy

This paper describes the analysis of the uncertainty of the XAJ hydrological model parameters and forecast results by GLUE method and information entropy. First, use the information entropy formula to initially judge the sensitivity of parameters, and by the GLUE method obtain the uncertainty scope of flow at 90% credibility, then, use the information entropy and the U-uncertainty formula to quantitatively analyze the uncertainty of forecast results from the model. Taking the watershed controlled by Xin-ning station in the Zishui water system for research, the results show ： （1） the GLUE method can be used to analyze the uncertainty of the XAJ hydrological model; （2） the information Entropy formula can preliminarily estimate the degree of sensitivity of parameters; （3） the uncertainty of model forecast results is gradually decreased with the increase of measured data.