| 管线断裂失效概率模型选取及分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王伟,谢禹钧. 管线断裂失效概率模型选取及分析[J]. 化工机械, 2007, 34(2): 101-103 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王伟 谢禹钧 |
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| 作者单位： | 辽宁石油化工大学;辽宁石油化工大学 |
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| 摘 要： | 以抽检得到的压力管线(样本)缺陷统计数据为依据,采用概率分析方法,通过合理选取不同概率模型,将缺陷分别按离散型及连续型随机变量进行处理,应用在役压力管道失效风险分析系统计算出管线的断裂失效概率。概率安全评定结果表明,这些缺陷引起管道系统的失效风险概率比较低,缺陷的存在不足以威胁安全生产,整个管线仍处于良好状态。
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| 关 键 词： | 管线 断裂失效风险 缺陷 概率模型 |
| 文章编号： | 0254-6094（2007）02-0101-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-08 |
Choice and Analysis of the Fracture Failure Probability Model of Pipelines |
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| WANG Wei,XIE Yujun. Choice and Analysis of the Fracture Failure Probability Model of Pipelines[J]. Chemical Engineering & Machinery, 2007, 34(2): 101-103 |
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| Authors: | WANG Wei XIE Yujun |
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| Affiliation: | Liaoning University of Petroleum and Chemical Technology, Fushun, 113001, Liaoning, China |
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| Abstract: | The faults of pipelines were separately treated in discrete random variable and continuous random variable using the probability analysis method and choosing the reasonably different probability models based on the fault statistics data of pressure pipelines extracted from random inspection, and the fracture failure probability of pressure pipelines was calculated using the fracture failure risk analysis system for pressure piping system containing defects. The probability safety estimation result shows that the failure risk probability of the pipelines induced with faults is comparatively low, the faults are not able to affect the safety of operation, the total pipelines are in a good condition. |
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| Keywords: | Pipeline Fracture Failure Risk Fault Probability Model |
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