库水位升降联合降雨作用下白家包滑坡稳定性评价

库水位升降和降雨通过改变三峡库区库岸滑坡岩土体的抗剪强度和应力状态，影响库岸滑坡的稳定性。为探讨白家包滑坡在库水位升降和降雨联合作用下的稳定性变化特征，本文首先根据GPS监测数据定性分析白家包滑坡变形规律，再采用Geo-studio软件计算4种工况下滑坡的稳定性系数，最后采用R/S分析法计算各GPS监测点累积位移的Hurst指数，并将Hurst指数值与Geo-studio数值模拟结果进行对比分析。结果表明：白家包滑坡累积位移曲线呈“阶跃状”特征；滑坡稳定性受库水位升降和降雨的综合影响，库水位下降时稳定性系数减小，上升时稳定性系数增大，降雨也能在一定程度上降低滑坡稳定性；175~145 m加降雨工况下滑坡最小稳定性系数为1.034，处于欠稳定状态；各监测点Hurst指数均介于0.5~1之间，表明未来滑坡变形将持续加剧，与滑坡变形定性分析及稳定性数值模拟结果一致。

Stability analysis of Baijiabao landslide under reservoir water level fluctuation and rainfall

Reservoir water level fluctuation and rainfall can influence landslides stability by changing the shear strength and stress state. In order to explore the landslide stability characteristics under the combina-tion effect of water level fluctuation and rainfall, the paper analyzes the deformation features of Baijiabao landslide based on GPS monitoring displacement data. Then Geo-studio software is used to calculate the safety factor of Baijiabao landslide in four working conditions. Finally, R/S method is used to calculate the Hurst index of four GPS monitoring points and is compared with stability analysis result. The results show that Baijiabao landslide with step-style displacement characteristic is affected by reservoir water level fluctu-ation and rainfall. The landslide safety factor decreases with water level drawdown and increases with water level rise. Rainfall can also reduce the landslide stability to a certain extent. In the condition of 175-145m water level and rainfall,the minimum safety factor of Baijibao landslide is 1.034 and means that the land-slide lacks stability. Besides,the Hurst index of four GPS monitoring point are all between 0.5 and 1,sug-gesting that the landslide deformation will be continuous, which is consistent with the results of stability analysis.