行为经济与自然过程耦合视角下的水资源复杂系统建模研究

在水资源供需矛盾日益严峻的形势下,如何动态刻画变化环境下个体与群体的用水行为响应与系统演化路径,建立有效的适应性管理策略已成为水资源管理者和研究者普遍关注的问题。在梳理了国内外水资源适应性管理模型的研究进展的基础上,以密云水库流域上、下游用水主体的竞争与优化配置建模为例,解析了不同气候条件下农业水资源利用主体的响应行为模式,设计了从微观个体用水行为适应自然变化过程模拟宏观流域系统演化的建模技术路线。提出耦合农村与城市的水资源配置模型框架,系统评估了多智能体建模仿真工具现状,遵循多智能体的ODD协议与粒子群优化算法,构建了气候变化情景下农户自适应用水行为模型,为多智能体模型在人水耦合系统建模、流域尺度的水资源优化配置、适应性管理决策分析提供了借鉴依据。

Modeling for the water resource complexity system coupling behavioral economics and natural process

Contradiction between supply and demand of water resource is increasingly severe. How to characterize individual and group water use behaviors and establish effective adaptive management strategies have become the common concerns of water managers and researchers. In this paper, we briefly introduce the agent-based modeling from the perspective of the theoretical methods and technical tools. We then take water resource use that transferring from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors in Miyun Reservoir Basin as a case, analyze the response behavior patterns of agricultural water resources utilization subjects under different climatic conditions, and proposed an adaptive agricultural water use model in accordance with ODD protocol, which established a roadmap from watershed system at the macro-level to individual water use behaviors at the micro-level. The proposed model includes the framework of water resource allocation model coupling human-natural system and highlights the rural-urban linkage, which provides a decision analysis tool to optimize water resource allocation for a watershed.