泾河流域径流量变化特征研究

通过分析张家山典型水文测站长序列径流量变化情况,揭示泾河流域径流量演变规律,预测未来变化趋势。采用线性回归、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall检验分析泾河流域径流量变化特征,采用有序聚类法和滑动t检验分析突变点,采用R/S法对流域径流量的未来变化趋势进行预测。结果表明:张家山站径流量年内分配不均,主要集中在7-10月,占到全年径流量的近70%。从年际变化趋势来看,年径流量、汛期径流量与非汛期径流量丰枯年份交替频繁,突变点在1996年左右,其中汛期径流量波动性与年径流量波动性相似程度更高,非汛期波动相对平稳。张家山站在1950 s至1980 s年代平均径流量较大,处于偏丰年代,1990s至2010s年代平均径流量小于多年平均值。年径流量、汛期径流量与非汛期径流量均呈现出显著减少趋势,其Hurst指数均大于0. 5,表明未来与当前趋势有一定持续性,预测未来将呈现持续减少趋势。

Analysis on characteristics of runoff variation in Jinghe River

Based on the analysis of runoff variation in the typical hydrological station of Zhangjiashan, the evolution law of runoff in Jinghe River Basin is revealed, and the future trend is predicted. The linear trend analysis, moving average method and Mann-Kendall test method were used to investigate the variation of runoff. The sequential cluster method and sliding t-test were applied to study the abruption of the runoff, and the R/S method was used to predict the future trend of runoff. The results showed that the distribution of annual runoff in Zhangjiashan Station was unevenly distributed, which was mainly concentrated in July and October, accounting for nearly 70% of the annual runoff. From interannual variation trend, dry year and wet year are alternating frequently, and mutation point is in around 1996. The flood season runoff was highly similar with the annual runoff, non-flood season runoff was relatively stable. The average runoff of Zhangjiashan Station from the 1950s to 1980s was relatively large, and from the 1990s to 2010s was less than the average of many years. Annual runoff, flood season runoff, and non-flood season runoff show a significant decrease trend, the Hurst index were greater than 0.5, which shows that there is a certain degree of continuity between the future and the current trend. The forecast will show a continuous decreasing trend in the future.