我国原油进口来源改进策略分析

考虑到进口来源多元化风险和来源地政治风险两个因素,将原油进口源分为五大地区创建进口来源风险综合指数,利用该指数,在2003～2010年我国实际五大进口来源份额的基础上,通过设置将政治风险较高、采购量较大的中东、非洲地区的采购份额转移到政治风险相对较低、进口份额相对较小的美洲、欧洲/前苏联和亚太地区的12种策略,并对12种策略进行分析对比,指出不同转移策略对改进我国原油进口来源策略的作用。

Analysis of Improving China Crude Oil Import Source Strategy

By taking the risk of crude oil import sources diversity and sources' political risk into considerations, this paper divides crude oil import sources into five areas, so as to create a composite index of risk. And then, based on China's actual oil purchase from 2003 to 2010, it uses this composite index to set up such 12 strategies as assuming a share of oil purchase to be transferred from the Middle East and Africa featured by higher political risk and larger proportion to be purchased to the European, America/ Former Soviet Union and the Asia-pacific region with lower political risk and smaller share of oil purchase. The paper makes a comparison among these strategies. and also analyzes their effects. And finally it points out their different roles of transfer strategies to improve crude oil import source strategy in our country.