我国应适当提高煤电的比重

我国2005年电源投资3228亿元,其中火电投资2270.6亿元,占70.3％；非化石电源投资957.4亿元,占29.7％.2010年我国电源投资3641亿元,其中火电投资1311亿元,占36％；非化石电源投资2330亿元,占64％.“十一五”期间,我国火电新增装机容量锐减,非化石电源新增装机容量剧增,而每年新增发电量则逐年减少.我国2006年火电新增装机容量9287×104kW,到2010年新增火电装机容量降为5872×104kW;我国2006年非化石电源新增装机容量1216×104kW,到2010年非化石电源新增装机容量上升到3256×104kW.每年新增装机容量可增加的年发量,2006年估计为5400×108kW·h,到2010年已降为4000×108kW·h左右.2010年我国电源投资中仅占36％的火电,却提供了64％的新增装机容量,而占64％的非化石电源只提供了约36％的新增装机容量,如果按新增发电量计,则火电机组提供的发电量比例更高.按中国电力企业联合会的规则,“十二五”期间我国非化石电源比例进一步增加,火电增幅继续下降.按火电机组等效容量计,2010～2015年年均增长率仅为8％,低于同期国内年均用电量增长率8.5％.鉴于我国的资源禀赋条件和“十一五”、“十二五“电源构成的变化趋势及其后果,建议我国应适应增加煤电的比重.

Coal Should Represent Larger Share in Power Generation

China invested 322.8 billion yuan in power generation construction in 2005,227.06 billion yuan or 70.3% of which was poured in coal-fired power generators.Investment in non-fossil fuel based power generation was 95.74 billion yuan,representing 29.7% of the total investment.In 2010,China invested 364.1 billion yuan in power generation,131.1 billion yuan or 36% of which was poured in coal-fired power generation and 233 billion yuan or 64% in non-fossil fuel based power generation.During the Eleventh Five Year Plan period,China′s coal-fired power generating capacity addition slowed considerably and that of non-fossil fuel based power generating capacity grew dramatically.In contrast,China′s power output has been slowing every year.In 2006,China added 9287×104kW of coal-fired power generating capacity,while in 2010 the country′s newly added coal-fired power generating capacity dropped to 5872×104kW.In 2006,China added 1216×104kW to its non-fossil fuel based power generating capacity and in 2010 the annual capacity addition increased to 3256×104kW.In 2006,China′s annual power output increased by an estimated 5400×108kW·h resulting from the addition of new capacities,while in 2010 this figure was some 4000×108kW·h.Coal-fired generating capacity accounted for only 36% of China′s total investment in power plants in 2010 but contributed 64% of the country′s new generating capacity.Non-fossil fuel based generating capacity,which accounted for 64% of the country′s investment in power plants,contributed only about 36% of the new generating capacity.If measured by added power output,the contribution of coal-fired generating capacity is even larger.According to China Electricity Council′s plan,the share of non-fossil fuel based generating capacity in China′s total generating capacity will increase further during the Twelfth Five Year Plan period and the growth of coal-fired generating capacity will continue to slow.If calculations are based on the equivalent coal-fired generating capacity,China′s coal-fired generating capacity will grow only 8% annually on average during 2010 to 2015,lower than the expected 8.5% annual growth of China′s power output during the period.Given China′s resource conditions as well as the tendency in the changes of the country′s power mix and consequences during the Eleventh and Twelfth Five Year Plan periods,we believe China should raise the share of coal-fired power generating capacity properly.