基于初值优化的灰色-马尔科夫傍河水源可靠性分析

傍河水源取水可靠性论证需要对河流的径流量进行分析,为提高河流径流量预测的准确性,本文提出了基于初值优化的灰色-马尔科夫模型来预测河流流量状态的方法,该方法分别将系列第一时刻的数据、最后时刻的数据以及前一时刻的数据作为初始条件,对各预测结果进行了加权平均,建立优化后的GM(1,1)模型,再用马尔科夫模型对灰色预测结果进行修正。运用该模型对辽河的巨流河水文站2000-2010年1月和2月的径流量预测值与实际值进行对比,预测精度较高。表明初值优化的灰色-马尔科夫模型预测方法可行,其预测较准确。文中利用该模型预测了未来10年区段枯水期的河流径流量,进而分析了区段内拟建傍河水源地取水的可靠性,为拟建水源取水工程的水资源论证提供了技术依据。

Analysis of reliability of riverside water source of Grey-Markov based on optimization of initial value

The reliability demonstration analysis of intaking water from riverside water resource requires the analysis of river runoff.In order to enhance the accuracy of predicting runoff of the river,the paper proposed a method of predicting river runoff state by using grey-markov model based on initial value optimization.the method took series data of the first duration, data of the last duration and data before the last duration as the initial condition.The prediction results were weighted average.The optimized GM (1,1) model was established and the grey prediction results were modified by the markov model.The model was utilized to compare the runoff predicted results and runoff actual results of Juliu river hydrological station of Lliaohe river from 2000 to 2010 in January and February, the prediction precision was high. It proved that the grey-markov model of initial value optimizing is feasible and the prediction is more accurate.The paper used the model to predict the dry river runoff in future 10 years and analyzed the reliability of water intake from a riverside water resource which will be constructed and provided the technical basis for the water resources argumentation of proprosed water intaking engineering.