遥感驱动的分布式实际径流模拟研究

以WBM/WTM(Water balance model/Water transport model)模型为基础,以遥感反演的月降水和月蒸发为主要数据源,开发了基于遥感的分布式水量平衡与传输模型(Remote sensing based Water balance/Water transport model,RSWB/WTM)。利用2002年-2007年的TRMM卫星的降水数据与2004年-2008年基于遥感反演的蒸散发数据,用该模型模拟了白洋淀流域阜平、中唐梅、紫荆关三个水文站的实际径流,对模型的模拟精度进行了评价。三个站的效率系数均大于0.54,其中中唐梅和紫荆关站的效率系数大于0.62。从R2来看,三个站分别是0.56、0.64和0.64。白洋淀流域水库、塘坝对实际径流的干扰较大,进而影响到了模型的模拟精度。另外,遥感反演降水与蒸发存在的不确定性也是影响模拟效率的原因之一。建立的完全以遥感为数据源的分布式水文模拟模型将为基于遥感的水资源评价提供新的技术手段。

Simulation of actual runoff using remote sensing driven distributed hydrological model

In this paper, we developed a remote sensing driven distributed water balance and water transport model (RSWB/WTM) based on WBM/WTM(Water balance model/Water transport model) model. Using precipitation and evaportranspiration data retrieved from remote sensing, the monthly discharge of three hydrological stations (Fuping, Zhongtangmei and Zijingguan) in Baiyangdian Region was simulated. Then the accuracy of the model was evaluated using Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients (E (NS)) and R2. The E (NS) for all stations were above 0.54, among which Zhongtangmai and Zijingguan were larger than 0.62. The R2 were 0.56, 0.64 and 0.64 for Fuping, Zhongtangmei and Zijingguan, respectively. In recent years, human activities had affected the natural water balance in Baiyangdian largely, thus the accuracy of the model was much influenced. It is also affected by the quality of the remote sensing retrieved data. It is hoped that our RSWB/WTM model and its application in Baiyangdian Region can provide a useful tool for the water resource assessment based on remote sensing data.