| 灰色理论在龙江突发镉污染水质预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏智宽,蒋世云,李少旦. 灰色理论在龙江突发镉污染水质预测中的应用[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2013, 24(3): 135-137,141 |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏智宽 蒋世云 李少旦 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广西工学院生物与化学工程学院,广西柳州,545006
2. 广西柳州疾病预防控制中心,广西柳州,545007 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西卫生厅科研项目，广西壮族自治区科学技术厅科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用灰色预测理论,建立了龙江突发水污染水质变化趋势的GM(1,1)预测模型,而后对模型进行残差修正。结果表明:经残差修正后的GM(1,1)模型更为合理,预测精度明显提高。本研究中灰色理论能够有效地对突发性水污染事故中的水质变化趋势进行短期预测,为相关部门及时采取相应的应急措施提供参考,减小事故风险。
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1,1)模型 残差修正 水质预测 龙江 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-01-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013-03-25 |
Application of grey theory in water quality prediction of sudden cadmium pollution in Longjiang River |
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| WEI Zhikuan,JIANG Shiyun and LI Shaodan. Application of grey theory in water quality prediction of sudden cadmium pollution in Longjiang River[J]. Journal of water resources and water engineering, 2013, 24(3): 135-137,141 |
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| Authors: | WEI Zhikuan JIANG Shiyun LI Shaodan |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Biological and Chemical Engineering, Guangxi University of Technology, Liuzhou 545006, China;Department of Biological and Chemical Engineering, Guangxi University of Technology, Liuzhou 545006, China;Guangxi Liuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liuzhou 545007,China [KH*3D] |
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| Abstract: | Through application of grey forecast theory,the paper built GM(1,1) forecast model of pollution water quality change trend of the Longjiang River burst and modified the model residual. The results show that the GM(1,1) model after residual modification is more reasonable , and prediction accuracy is obviously improved.The residual GM(1,1) model can effectively forecast the trend of water quality during a short period in sudden water pollution accidents,provide reference for the relevant department to adopt the corresponding emergency measures and reduce the risk of accidents. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1,1) model residual modification water quality forecast Longjiang river |
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