Risk appraisal of passing zones on two-lane rural highways and policy applications |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, Makerere University, Technology Road, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda;2. Department of Transport & Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, Netherlands;3. Department of Transport Science, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Teknikringen 72, 1tr, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden;4. Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, United States;1. Faculty of Transportation, University of Isfahan, Iran;2. Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Iran;1. Department of Civil Engineering, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona 3801, W. Temple Ave., Pomona, CA 91768, United States;2. Engineering Technology Research Center for Mathematical Educational Software, Guangzhou University, Waihuanxi Road No.230, Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center, China;1. Department of Computational Modeling and Simulation Engineering, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, 23529, United States;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, 23529, United States;3. Department of Civil and Urban Engineering, New York University, Brooklyn, NY, 11201, United States;1. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Arlington, 416 Yates St., 425 Nedderman Hall, Arlington, TX, 76019, United States;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Intelligent Transportation Systems Lab., 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Building 1-180, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, United States;3. Institute of Transportation Studies, 4000 Anteater Instruction and Research Building (AIRB), University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, 92697, United States;4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 4014 Anteater Instruction and Research Building (AIRB), Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, 92697, United States |
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| Abstract: | Passing on two-lane rural highways is associated with risks of head-on collision resulting from unsafe completion of passing maneuvers in the opposite traffic lane. In this paper, we explore the use of time-to-collision (TTC) as a surrogate safety measure of the risk associated with passing maneuvers. Logistic regression models to predict the probability to end the passing maneuver with TTC less than 2 or 3 s-threshold were developed with the time-gap from initiation of the maneuver to arrival of the opposite vehicle (effective accepted gap), and the passing duration as explanatory variables. The data used for model estimation was collected using stationary tripod-mounted camcorders at 19 passing zones in Uganda. Results showed that passing maneuvers completed with TTC less than 3 s are unsafe and often involved sudden speed reduction, flashing headlights, and lateral shift to shoulders. Model sensitivity analysis was conducted for observed passing durations involving passenger cars or short trucks (2–3 axles), and long trucks (4–7 axles) as the passed vehicles for 3 s TTC-threshold. Three risk levels were proposed based on the probability to complete passing maneuvers with TTC less than 3 s for a range of opposite direction traffic volumes. Applications of the results for safety improvements of two-lane rural highways are also discussed. |
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| Keywords: | Risk Time-to-collision Accepted gap Passing duration Passing zones Two-lane highways |
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