黄土高路堤沉降变形预测模型研究

以兰州—海石湾高速公路高69 m黄土路堤沉降资料为研究样本,采用经修正了非匀速填土和非等步长沉降观测时间的GM(1,1)灰色理论预测模型进行黄土高路堤工后最终沉降量预测,与等比级数曲线模型预测结果对比,认为这两种预测模型都能很好地预测黄土高路堤工后最终沉降量,且灰色预测模型能较等比级数曲线预测模型更好地反映黄土高路堤不均匀沉降趋势。同时认为,考虑了沉降观测时间非等步长性和路堤填土速度不均匀性的灰色预测模型其预测结果更符合黄土高路堤沉降变形趋势,可进行进一步的研究、推广和应用。

Model study for prediction of settlement of loess-fill high embankments

Using the settlement data of a 69m loess-fill high embankment of an expressway as the sample,a GM(1,1)grey model,which has been modified to consider non-homogeneous filling rate and non-equal time step of prediction,is employed to predict the final embankment settlement.A comparitive study is conducted on the predicted results of the current model against those of a growth curve model.It shows that while both models can predict the final settlement of high fill embankments,the grey model gives better prediction on the non-homogeneous deformation of high fill embankments.