从国际经验看当前浙江住宅业面临的潜在风险 ——1983-1993年洛杉矶、波士顿房价大幅波动的启示

近年来浙江房地产市场因独有的火爆备受全国的关注,其价升量增的市场状况被称为“浙江现象”,但同时浙江房地产开发,销售形势一片大好也淡化了相当一部分人的风险意识。本文在对1983年－1993年美国洛杉矶,波士顿住宅价格出现大幅度波动背景比较分析的基础上,详细分析了浙江住宅业当前面临的六大风险,指出政府应提前做好风险控制和化解工作,保护住宅业与社会协调发展,以减少住宅业大幅度波动给宏观经济带来的负面影响。

An empirical view on the potential risks facing Zhejiang housing industry from international experience

In recent years the real estate business in Zhejiang Province has been so booming that it has drawn much attention from across the country. Its market characteristics of increasing quantity and soaring price are termed as "Zhejiang Phenomenon". As a matter of fact, the optimism demonstrated in this seemingly rapid development and good marketing has blunted people's risk awareness. This paper, therefore, based on a comparative analysis of the background of housing price fluctuations in Los Angeles and Boston, U.S.A., in the period from 1983 to 1993 , makes a detailed analysis of the potential risks facing the real estate business in Zhejiang Province. It points out that the government should control and dissolve the risks in advance so as to maintain a coordinated development of real estate business and social economy, and to minimize the negative effects of big-margin price fluctuations in the real estate business on macro economy.