计及风光出力时变相关特性的输电可靠性裕度评估

风光并网背景下,为准确评估风光相关性出力及系统输电可靠性裕度(transmission reliability margin,TRM),提出了一种计及风光出力时变相关特性的TRM评估方法.首先,计及风光出力存在的时变相关特性和季节特性,提出了基于时变Copula函数的风光24 h联合出力场景生成方法,所生成的场景为准确...

Evaluation of Transmission Reliability Margin Taking into Account the Time-Varying Correlation Characteristics of Wind-Solar Output

In the context of wind-solar grid integration, in order to accurately evaluate wind-solar correlation output and system transmission reliability margin (TRM), a TRM evaluation method taking into account the time-varying characteristics of wind-solar output is proposed. First, considering the time-varying correlation characteristics and seasonal characteristics of wind-solar output, a method based on the time-varying Copula function for wind-solar 24h joint output scene generation is proposed. The generated scene provides the basis for accurate TRM evaluation. Then, while considering the characteristics of the TRM time scale, the GlueVaR measurement system is introduced to measure the risk of transmission capacity deficiency, and a TRM expected net return model that distinguishes the different risk preferences of decision makers is constructed. Finally, applying wind-solar scene set, the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate the system's time-series operation scene set, and the IEEE-RTS system is used to solve the model using optimization algorithms. Compared with previous methods, the simulation results indicated that the proposed method can not only improve the accuracy of wind-solar joint output scene generation, but also guarantee the reliable and economic operation of power system and realize differentiated evaluation of TRM.