油气钻井作业成本预测模型研究

通过对国内外钻井成本研究的分析，寻找影响钻井作业成本的主要因素，可指导钻井作业成本预测模型的建立。为此，采用实证研究方法，针对油气钻井作业的过程提出两个假设：①钻井作业成本与钻井进尺呈一定的比例关系；②钻井作业成本与钻井周期呈一定的比例关系。构建了钻井进尺和钻井周期两个自变量，并以2003年长庆钻井工程总公司完成的钻井数据为样本，运用统计分析方法来验证这两个假设，并构建成本预测模型，该模型的解释力度较强。检验了模型的预测精度，结果显示误差小于6%。该预测模型表明钻井成本与钻井进尺和钻井周期呈指数关系。模型较强的解释力度和较小的预测误差，将有助于钻井成本预测和计划管理。

COST FORECAST MODEL STUDY ON OIL AND GAS WELL OPERATION

Through analysis on the study of drilling cost both at home and abroad, the main factors influencing the drilling cost have been found to guide to build up the forecast model on the drilling cost. Therefore, a positive research method was adopted to put forward two hypotheses during the oil and gas drilling works, i.e. a certain relation existed between operation's cost and drilling footage and cycle respectively. Drilling footage and cycle were regarded as two independent variables, while the drilling data accomplished by the Changqing Drilling Engineering Company were taken as samples, and then those two hypotheses were testified by the method of statistical analysis to set up a drilling cost forecast model with a strong explanation. The forecast accuracy was proved to be satisfactory with an error ratio less than 6%. This forecast model shows that there exists exponential relation between the drilling cost and the footage and the cycle respectively. The reliable explanation and the less error of forecasting will be helpful in predicting the drilling cost and planning the projects in management.