未来气候变化对黑河流域作物需水影响分析

借助作物发育期积温阈值法和气候倾向率法,分析了作物发育期的物候变化,结合气温和物候期两个控制变量,分析了不同气候变化情景下的黑河流域典型作物需水量变化规律。结果表明:利用发育期积温阈值法和气候倾向率法分析作物物候期变化,与实际相符。小麦和玉米生育期整体表现为缩短的趋势,且全生育期长度缩短。小麦全生育期作物需水量非线性增加,即气温平均升高1℃,生育期开始时间提前2 d,生育期缩短2 d,需水量增加约为1.4 mm;玉米全生育期作物需水量非线性减少,即气温平均升高1℃,生育期开始时间提前3 d,生育期长度缩短4d,需水量减少近0.9 mm。

Analysis of impact from futural climate change on crop water demand in Heihe River Basin

The phenological change during crop development period is analyzed herein with the method of the accumulated temperature threshold value during crop development and the method of the climate tendency rate，and then the changing laws of the water demands from the typical crops under various climate change scenarios in Heihe River Basin are analyzed in combination with both the control variables of both the temperature and the phenological period. The result shows that the analysis result of the phenological period change of crop obtained by both the method of the accumulated temperature threshold value during crop development and the method of the climate tendency rate is coincided with that of the reality. The growing periods of both wheat and the corn generally present the tendencies of shortening，and then the whole growing periods are shortened. Moreover，the water demand of wheat is non-linearly increased during its whole growing period，i.e. if the mean temperature rise is 1 ℃，the growing period is to start 2 d in advance and is to be shortened by 2 d with the increase of the water demand of about 1.4 mm，while the water demand of corn is non-linearly decreased during its whole growing period，i.e. if the mean temperature rise is 1 ℃，the growing period is to start 3 d in advance and is to be shortened by 4 d with the decrease of the water demand of about 0.9 mm.