京津冀地区县域单元洪涝灾害风险评价

鉴于系统、合理的洪涝灾害风险宏观研判对区域防洪减灾能力提升具有重要意义,以京津冀地区为例,综合致灾因子与孕灾环境、承灾体暴露性与易损性及防灾减灾等评价维度,改进洪涝灾害风险指数模型,应用多因子统计综合评价方法计算京津冀地区县域单元洪涝灾害风险指数并进行区划。结果表明,研究区洪涝灾害风险呈北低-中高-南中态势,较高以上风险多分布在河流出山口与中下游汇流平原区,且承灾体暴露程度对高风险值贡献较大;中东部与南部孕灾敏感性评价值与中等风险区分布形态基本一致。经验证分析,研究结果相对可靠、合理,可为区域综合防灾规划编制及洪涝灾害风险防控提供参考借鉴。

Flood Disaster Risk Assessment on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region at County Level

The systematic and reasonable risk assessment of flood disaster microscopically has important significance for the promotion of capacity in flood disaster preventing. This paper determines the evaluation indexes system for risk evaluation of flood disaster at county level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, based on the comprehensive analyzing both the hazard-formative factor and conditions, and the exposure, vulnerability and the prevention system of hazard-affected body. Then the model of flood disaster risk index model is improved and the risk zoning of flood disaster risk is conducted by synthetic statistical valuation method. The results show that the risk distribution in the south is higher than in the north but with highest value in the central region, and relatively high-risk grade zones are distributed in the mountain pass runoff and join area of main rivers on the plain, based on which the highest grade zone emerged due to higher exposure value, as well as the consistency between high-risk grade zones with higher hazard-formative value. Furthermore, the results are proved to be reasonable relatively and could provide references for regionally flood control planning compiling and flood disaster risk management.