异质信念对中国房价波动的影响效应研究

购房者行为模型表明，异质信念对房价具有正向影响，无论公共预期如何，异质信念都将促进房价上涨。通过工具变量 2SLS 法对中国 35 个大中城市的实证分析表明，异质信念对房价波动显示出显著的解释力，并表现出明显的区域效应；以是否实施限购区分的分样本分析表明异质信念对房价的影响与公共预期的方向无关，从而验证了提出的推论，为异质信念条件下的政策调控提供了思路

The Effect of Heterogeneous Beliefs on House Price Fluctuations in China

The behavior model of house buyers shows that heterogeneous beliefs have positive effects on housing prices. Theheterogeneous beliefs would promote house prices regardless of public expectations. The empirical analysis of 35 large andmedium-sized cities in China by 2SLS method with instrumental variables indicates that heterogeneous beliefs have a significantexplanatory power on house price fluctuations. It also shows obvious regional effect. The analysis of sub samples differentiated byhouse purchase quota policy shows that the influence of heterogeneous beliefs on house prices has no relation with the direction ofpublic expectations，which proves the theoretical deduction. The study provides ideas for the policy regulation under the condition ofheterogeneous beliefs.