南水北调西线一期工程对四川水电产业的影响

南水北调西线一期工程拟从雅砻江、 大渡河源头分别调水 56 亿 m 3 、 24 亿 m 3 , 调水将减少雅砻江、 大渡河、 金沙江( 以下简称/ 三江0)径流量。为综合分析西线一期调水对四川水电产业的影响, 从梯级电站径流、 发电量、 装机容量、 枯水期平均出力、 发电税收等几个特征指标入手, 通过建立梯级水库群联合优化调度模型来计算分析调水的影响并提出了相应的补偿 机制建议。结果 表明: 调 水将影响四川省/ 三江0 梯级电站 82 座, 减少年发电 量442 亿 kW# h, 减少装机容量 970 万 kW, 造成/ 三江0支流部分已规划电站失去经济开发价值, 对四川水电产业影响较大, 建立合理的补偿机制是必要的。

Effects of Phase I Project of the Western Route ofSouth2to 2NorthWater Transfer Project on hydropower industry in Sichuan

T he Phase I Project of the Western Route of South 2to2NorthWater T ransfer Project will transfer water of 5. 6 billion m 3 and 2. 4 billionm 3 from the upper reach of Yalong River and Dadu River to the upper stream of Yellow River respectively, which can cause the runoff reductionin the Yalong River, Dadu River, and Jinsha River ( called/ three rivers0 hereafter) . In order to investigate the effects of Phase I Project on thehydropower industry in Sichuan Province, the optimal operation model of cascade reservoirs was built to analyze the effects of water transferfrom the perspective of runoff, generated energy, installed capacity, average output in dry season, and electric power tax revenue of cascade hy2dropower plant, and the corresponding compensation mechanism was proposed. The results indicated that 82 hydropower plants are influenced bythe Phase I Project of the Western Route of South2to2NorthWater Transfer Project, and the project causes the decreasing in power generation of42. 2 billion kW# h and decreasing in installed capacity of 9, 700 MW. Thus, many planned plants located in the tributaries of / three rivers0 losethe economic values, and the corresponding compensation mechanism is necessary.