基于混合随机规划/信息间隙决策理论的虚拟电厂调度优化模型

虚拟电厂(VPP)在调度过程中面临多种不确定因素,给决策和系统安全运行带来一定的困难。提出了基于混合随机规划/信息间隙决策理论(IGDT)的VPP调度优化模型,该模型针对电价概率分布描述较为准确、预测精度较高的特点,采用随机规划处理电价的不确定性;针对风光出力概率分布难以精确刻画、预测精度较低的特点,采用IGDT处理风光出力的不确定性,通过赋予风光出力偏差系数不同的权重,解决了IGDT同时处理风光出力不确定性的问题。此外,针对不确定性决策的盲目性和不同策略面临风险程度的不同,引入风险成本量化不同决策方案对应的风险。仿真结果验证了所提模型的有效性。

Dispatch optimization model of virtual power plant based on hybrid stochastic programming and information gap decision theory

A number of uncertainties in the dispatch process of VPP(Virtual Power Plant) bring some difficulties to decision-making and safe operation of a system. A dispatch optimization model of VPP based on hybrid stochastic programming and IGDT(Information Gap Decision Theory) is established. As the electricity price can be predicted more accurately and therefore the probability distribution of price can be precisely described, the stochastic programming approach is used to deal with the price uncertainty. In view of the inability of accurate characterization of the probability distribution and the low prediction accuracy of wind and photovoltaic power output, the IGDT is applied to deal with the uncertainty of wind and photovoltaic power output and different weights of wind and photovoltaic power output deviation coefficients are given to solve the uncertainties when IGDT is used to deal with wind and photovoltaic power output simultaneously. Furthermore, aiming at the blindness of uncertainty decision-making and risk degrees of different strategies, the risk cost is introduced to quantify the risk of different decision-making schemes. Simulative results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.