电力负荷预测的方法研究

阐述了电力负荷预测的基本概念和方法,收集了本地区近5年来经济发展的GDP值和供、售电量的历史数据,采用弹性系数法、时间序列法和回归分析法对本地区未来5年的电力负荷进行预测,并且对预测结果的准确性和各类预测方法的优缺点进行分析对比,分析结果表明,优选组合预测法具有较好的预测效果.

Electric Power Load Forecasting

The basic concept and method of electric power load forecasting was described.The electric power load of the area in the coming five years was forecasted by using elastic coefficient method,time series method and regression analysis method and based on the GDP values,power supply and electricity sales data in an area collected during last five years.Then study and comparison was made on the forecasting accuracy and the advantages and disadvantages of various forecasting methods.It indicates that combination forecast method holds better prediction results.