基于MCMC的电网安全稳定控制系统动态可靠性评估方法

现有安全稳定控制系统（稳控系统）可靠性评估方法本质上都是静态建模，由于未能体现系统内各装置的老化和检修过程而一定程度上影响了评估结果的准确性。提出一种基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗的稳控系统动态可靠性评估方法。首先，针对失效过程，构建四状态连续时间系数马尔可夫模型来模拟装置老化过程，并给出各状态评判方法；其次，针对修复过程，分析不同检修策略对装置状态转移的影响以体现状态检修的差异化；最后，考虑稳控装置状态转移过程的时序相关性，对稳控系统可靠性进行动态建模。以可抽象出最小单元的实际稳控系统为例，仿真对比了不同检修策略下的可靠性并对模型参数进行了灵敏度分析，评估结果表明该方法可指导稳控装置现场合理检修，并提醒工程中应格外关注对系统可靠性影响大、但随技术发展可逐渐被识别的隐性故障。

Dynamic reliability evaluation method of power grid security and stability control system based on MCMC

The existing reliability evaluation methods of security and stability control system (SSCS) are essentially static modeling, which to some extent affects the accuracy of the evaluation results due to the failure to reflect the aging and maintenance processes of various devices in the system. A dynamic reliability evaluation method of SSCS based on Markov chain Monte Carlo is put forward. Firstly, for the failure process, a four-state continuous time Markov model is constructed to simulate the aging process of the device, and evaluation methods of each state are given; Secondly, for the repair process, the influence of different maintenance strategies on device state transition is analyzed to reflect the differentiation of state maintenance; Finally, considering the temporal correlation of the state transition process of the stability control device, dynamic modeling of the reliability of the SSCS is carried out. Taking the actual SSCS that can abstract the smallest unit as an example, the reliability of different maintenance strategies is compared by simulation, and the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed. The evaluation result shows that this method can guide the reasonable maintenance of stability control device on site, and it is reminded that special attention should be paid to hidden faults that have a significant impact on system reliability but can gradually be identified with technological development in engineering.