基于成灾信息的山洪灾害临界雨量综合检验复核方法

山丘区小流域山洪灾害临界雨量计算时受到众多因素影响,有必要结合近期实际成灾暴雨洪水信息对临界雨量理论值进行检验复核。临界雨量检验复核通常针对某一防灾对象,而同一防灾对象通常有多个预警时段,为了判别防灾对象整体临界雨量的可靠度,利用近期成灾暴雨洪水信息计算各预警时段合理性判别因子,采用层次分析法(AHP)确定各预警时段合理性权重,计算合理性综合检验指标,检验防灾对象整体临界雨量的合理性。实例计算表明,合理性综合检验指标能有效判别防灾对象整体临界雨量的可靠度,完善了临界雨量合理性检验复核理论体系,且为小流域临界雨量检验复核提供了新的思路。

Comprehensive Assessment and Recheck Method of Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Based on Disaster Information

Due to the impacts of many factors on the calculation of rainfall threshold for flash flood in small hilly basin, the theoretical value of rainfall threshold needs to be assessed and rechecked through disaster information. Rainfall threshold assessment is usually carried out for an object, but there are more than one warning durations for the same disaster object. In order to distinguish the overall rationality of rainfall threshold for an object, rationality discriminant factor of warning durations were calculated according to recent flash flood and rainfall disaster information, and the weight of warning durations were calculated by AHP. Comprehensive rationlity index (CCRI) was determined to assess the overall rationality of rainfall threshold. The example results show that the CCRI can effectively distinguish the overall rationality of the rainfall threshold for an object, perfecting the rainfall threshold rationality assessment system and providing a new idea for rainfall threshold assessment and recheck in small basin.