基于承载过程的安徽省水资源承载力动态评价

针对水资源-经济社会-生态环境复杂系统的水资源承载力评价问题,提出从水资源支撑力、水资源压力、水资源调控力三个子系统选择指标,建立基于承载过程的水资源承载主客体耦合评价模型,对安徽省水资源承载力进行动态评价。结果表明,安徽省各评价年水资源总体处于可载状态,承载支撑力不足地区人口趋于超载,经济超载地区多为重工业城市,皖北地区承载力总体小于皖南和江淮地区。计算结果符合研究区域实际情况,可为安徽省水资源的可持续承载提供依据。

Dynamic Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Anhui Province Based on Carrying Process

Aiming at the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity which is related to water resources system, economic and social system and ecological environment system, the indexes in the bearing ability system, bearing pressure system and regulation ability system of water resources were selected, and water resources carrying capacity evaluation model based the carrying process was established. The model was used for dynamic evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province. The results show that water resources in Anhui Province can be loaded in evaluation years generally; The population of areas with small supporting capacity tends to overload, and the economy overloaded areas are mostly heavy industrial cities. The carrying capacity of Northern Anhui Province is smaller than that of Southern Anhui and Jianghuai Region. The calculation results conform to the actual situation of the research area, which could provide theoretical reference for the sustainable carrying of water resources in Anhui Province.