深部岩体变形的混沌预测方法

论述深部岩体变形行为及其围岩稳定性分析中应用混沌方法;同时,根据岩体工程的观测位移时间序列,基于相空间重构,给出了最大Lyapunov特征指数的计算步骤,并给出了岩体位移时序的线性和非线性两种混沌预报模式。据此,建立了岩体工程位移观测数据的混沌预测方法。对玲珑金矿255m水平主运巷的塌陷情况进行了算例分析。首先,对于主运旧巷断面的收敛位移观测序列,采用插值方法对其进行了预处理,以获得等间隔的位移序列;然后,对该位移序列,利用上述混沌分析方法,获得其最大Lyapunov特征指数为0.05;分别采用近邻等距法和最大Lyapunov指数预报模式,对位移序列进行了预测。与观测位移相比较,位移预测结果比较理想。

CHAOTIC PREDICTION METHOD OF ROCK MASS DEFORMATION IN DEPTH

The deformation behavior and the application of chaotic method for the stability analysis of the rock mass engineering in depth are summarized. For the measured displacement time series of rock mass engineering, the procedure for calculating the largest Lyapunov exponent is given on basis of phase space reconstruction. Linear and nonlinear chaotic prediction methods are represented for the rock mass displacement. Thus,the chaotic analytic method is set up for the prediction of the measured displacement time series of rock mass engineering. The analysis of the 255 m main transport roadway damaged in Linglong gold mine is considered as an example. At first,the damaged situations of the 255 m main transport roadways are simply presented. Then,for the measured convergent displacement time series of the 255 m main transport roadway,the interpolation method is adopted; and an equal interval displacement time series is obtained. The results show that the largest Lyapunov exponent is 0.05 based on phase space reconstruction. Finally,it is separately predicted by the method of equidistance in near neighbor and that of the largest Lyapunov exponent prediction,and the predicted displacement values are ideal compared with the measured displacement values.