| 边坡安全系数与滑坡概率关系分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 饶运章,张学焱,利坚,李雪珍,王丹. 边坡安全系数与滑坡概率关系分析[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2017, 34(5): 63-67. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20160186 |
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| 作者姓名： | 饶运章 张学焱 利坚 李雪珍 王丹 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西理工大学 a.资源与环境工程学院; b.江西省矿业工程重点实验室,江西 赣州 341000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高新技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目，2011年度江西省安全生产重大课题，2015年江西理工大学校级学术学位研究生创新专项资金项目，江西省研究生创新专项资金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了给安全系数和滑坡概率的相互转化提供理论依据,分析滑坡影响因素与安全系数、滑坡概率的函数关系,得出安全系数与滑坡概率之间的函数关系。采用极限平衡法分析滑坡影响因素与安全系数的函数表达式;应用逻辑回归模型分析滑坡影响因素与滑坡概率间的函数关系;结合赣南38个离子型稀土矿边坡实例,应用SPSS软件,求解各边坡的滑坡概率,并得出滑坡概率和安全系数的拟合函数。选取10个边坡实例,同时采用边坡安全系数工程规范对拟合函数进行检验,结果表明了函数关系的准确性。
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡概率 安全系数 滑坡影响因素 逻辑回归模型 SPSS |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-03-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-04-04 |
Relationship Between Slope Safety Factor andLandslide Probability |
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| RAO Yun-zhang,ZHANG Xue-yan,LI Jian,LI Xue-zhen,WANG Dan. Relationship Between Slope Safety Factor andLandslide Probability[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2017, 34(5): 63-67. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20160186 |
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| Authors: | RAO Yun-zhang ZHANG Xue-yan LI Jian LI Xue-zhen WANG Dan |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000, China;2.Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Mining Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000, China |
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| Abstract: | Slope safety factor and landslide probability can be reflected by landslide's influential factors.In this article,a function describing the relationship between safety factor and landslide probability was presented.The function between safety factor and influential factors was analyzed using the limit equilibrium method,and the relations between influential factors and landslide probability were then obtained using logistic regression model.The landslide probability of 38 ionic-type rare-earth ore slope in south Jiangxi Province were obtained by using SPSS software,and the fitted relation between safety factor and landslide probability was hence deduced.The fitted function was verified correct by engineering specification. |
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| Keywords: | landslide probability safety factor landslide's influential factors logistic regression model SPSS |
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